Captain Marvel Box Office Drop: has now grossed $187.676 million in six days of domestic release after grossing $8.61 million on Wednesday, a dramatic 41 percent decline from its $14.6 million Tuesday.
To be fair, The Jungle Book dropped 34% on its debut Wednesday, so this isn’t exactly an out-of-the-ordinary Tuesday-to-Wed decrease. It’s expected to hit $200 million domestically tomorrow, putting it on track for a second weekend gross of $60 million to $70 million.
Captain Marvel Box Office Drop film that cost $150 million
Yes, we could predict a 61 percent to 54 percent dip over the weekend, resulting in a ten-day total of between $255 million and $265 million. Yes, it could fall even more than Spider-Man: Homecoming’s 62.2 percent second-weekend dip (the greatest MCU second-weekend loss to date), but that wouldn’t be cause for concern.
First and foremost, we’re talking about a film that cost $150 million to make and grossed $455 million worldwide. With a global cume of $555 million as of yesterday, it should cross $600 million tomorrow and treble its budget.
The Brie Larson sci-fi actioner will start making money by the end of this sentence, even without marketing. Second, we’ve seen at least two recent examples of major superhero films suffering massive second-weekend dips and still surviving to fight another day.
In the summer of 2017, Spider-Man: Homecoming rebounded, grossing “just” $42 million in weekend two after a $117 million opening weekend. However, because to positive word-of-mouth and the lack of major live-action kid-friendly films between Spider-Man: Homecoming in early July and Thor:
Ragnarok in early November, the film swung to $334 million in the United States, a fine 2.85x weekend-to-final multiplier. From the middle of the summer to the start of the holiday season, the Tom Hollander feature was a key consensus option and second-choice pick as a film that appealed to both youngsters and adults.
Suicide Squad had a fantastic $133 million Friday-Sunday debut in August 2016, but its second-weekend gross plummeted by 67 percent to $43 million.
Because it was released five weeks before WB’s Sully and nearly two months before Sony’s Magnificent Seven (ironically, a vastly superior version of the entire Dirty Dozen template).
And because it was a more crowd-pleasing movie to general audiences (who just wanted to see Viola Davis’s Dr. Waller, Will Smith’s Deadshot, and Margot Robbie’s Harley Quinn), the crowed received a higher rating.
By the way, there was a higher multiplier (2.44x) than Captain America: Civil War (2.27x), Avengers: Age of Ultron (2.4x), and Iron Man 3 (2.27x) (2.35x).
Yes, both of those films and their individual runs have different variables. But, assuming Wonder Park doesn’t overachieve among the small kids/young girls who might otherwise flock to Captain Marvel,
The MCU film should cruise through kid-friendly fare until Walt Disney’s Dumbo arrives on March 29. Following that, DC Films’ Shazam will be released on April 5, Lionsgate’s (R-rated) Hellboy will be released on April 12, and Avengers: Endgame will be released on April 26.
Civil War and Black Panther in Avengers
Captain Marvel is already a winner, and I don’t expect anything more than the normal over/under 55 percent dip this weekend. It will quadruple its budget by tomorrow, it may still gross $400 million domestically and/or $1 billion worldwide, and Brie Larson’s Carol Danvers, like Ant-Man in Captain America
Infinity War, is a popular enough character to elicit cheers when she appears in Avengers: Endgame. All I know is that, with Captain Marvel on the verge of passing Puss In Boots in global box office, Goose had better have made it through the snap!